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intermediategeology
Prospect Evaluation and Risking
Building on Introduction to Petroleum Systems and Reservoir Fundamentals, learn how exploration teams answer one question — should we drill it? — by mapping a trap, scoring its chance of success with five risk factors, sizing it as a low, best and high case, and turning chance and volume into expected monetary value. Short videos, interactive labs, quizzes and a synthetic Niger Delta case study prepare you to present and defend a drill-or-drop recommendation in a graduate interview or assessment centre.
4-5 hours9 sections20 lessons
Course Content
Section 1: 00 - Introduction
1 lessons
Section 2: 01 - Plays, Leads and Prospects
2 lessons
Section 3: 02 - Mapping the Trap
3 lessons
Section 4: 03 - Chance of Success
2 lessons
Section 5: 04 - How Big Could It Be?
2 lessons
Section 6: 05 - Is It Worth It?
2 lessons
Section 7: 06 - Ranking and Portfolio
2 lessons
Section 8: 07 - After the Well
2 lessons
What You'll Learn
- Explain the exploration funnel from basin to drillable prospect, and use play fairway (common risk segment) maps to find where leads are worth chasing
- Read a depth structure map, convert two-way time to depth, and identify the crest, spill point, closure and gross rock volume, including fault-dependent closures and the limits of DHIs
- Score the chance of geological success with the five risk factors (source, reservoir, trap, seal, timing & migration), avoiding double-counting and accounting for play dependency
- Estimate prospective resources as low / best / high (P90 / P50 / P10, with P90 the low number) and distinguish success-case from risked volumes and the minimum economic field size
- Calculate NPV, IRR and expected monetary value, use a simple decision tree, and rank prospects by risked volume, EMV and EMV per dollar within a portfolio
- Present and defend a drill-or-drop recommendation, and explain what a post-well review and risk calibration show after the well